U.S. home prices show a deceleration in the annual growth rates in 17 0f 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites compared to what was reported for October 2010 according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. It’s the fifth consecutive drop in home prices, falling to the lowest levels since June 2009.
The 10-City Composite was down 0.4% and the 20-City Composite fell 1.6% from their November 2009 levels. Home prices fell in 19 of 20 MSAs and both Composites in November from their October levels. During November, only Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington, DC, showed year over year gains.
Composite indices remain above their spring 2009 lows; however, Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa hit their lowest levels since home prices peaked in 2006 and 2007, meaning that average home prices in those markets have fallen even further than the lows set in the spring of 2009.
David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s, said the numbers mean more analysts will be calling for a double dip in home prices.
“Let’s take a moment to define a double-dip as seeing the 10- and 20-City Composites set new post-peak lows,” he said. “The series are now only 4.8% and 3.3% above their April 2009 lows, suggesting that a double-dip could be confirmed before Spring. Certainly eight cities setting new lows, and with the only positive news concentrated in southern California and Washington DC, the data point to weakness in home prices.”
“With an annual growth rate of +3.5% in November, Washington DC was the strongest market, but still well below the +7.7% annual rate of growth seen in May 2010. The only city with a gain in November was San Diego, up a scant 0.1%. While San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco are still ahead from November 2009, their annual rates are shrinking in recent months.
“Looking at the monthly statistics, 19 of 20 MSAs and both Composites were down in November over October. Fourteen MSAs and both composites have posted at least four consecutive months of decline with November’s report. Thirteen of the MSAs and the 20-City Composite fell by 1.0% or more in November. While not always consecutive months, 13 of the MSAs and both composites have posted at least seven months of decline since the beginning of 2010. These markets saw home prices fall more than half the months reported in 2010 so far.”