The Federal Housing Administration’s annual reports, released last week, provide projections that are still too “rosy” based on what Home Equity Conversion Mortgage program data suggests, a recent New View Advisors commentary states. In three important areas, the data deserves a bit more explanation in order to get an accurate picture, New View writes.

Aggregate changes to the FHA’s overall HECM exposure, FHA’s prepayment conclusions and its home price appreciation (HPA) assumptions (and the impact of tax and insurance defaults on future losses) all play a role in the accurate picture of the status program, according to New View, which cites two sources that have indicated expected future losses have also been “significantly understated” on the administration’s forward book of business.

“FHA’s $10 billion expected loss from its HECM book is likely low, based on overly optimistic HPA, loss, and prepayment assumptions,” the commentary states.

For starters, the 2011 annual analysis from FHA covers only the Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund, New View notes, and not the General Insurance fund, which still houses the majority of FHA’s reverse mortgage exposure. The MMI fund does include a portion of outstanding HECM value, but those were originated mainly after the real estate bubble had already deflated.

With respect to prepayment speeds, New View estimates prepayment rates for HECMs are around 4% overall (and 2% for the vintages during the housing bubble), while FHA estimated 6%. Further, the analysis states, if history is any indication, the assumption of FHA that home prices will rise 3% to 5% annually by 2015 is too favorable in the current climate. Finally, FHA’s 2.5% estimate of HECM default rates is low based on other HUD estimates that current default rates are closer to 8%-plus.

How far off the analysis actually is a guess at best, New View says, but the report fails to show an accurate worst-case, best-case and baseline scenario.

“Nonetheless, we emphasize that FHA has taken many of the proper steps necessary to reform the HECM program,” New View writes. “The reverse mortgage industry has reduced the amount it lends, weaned itself off Fannie Mae, and introduced financial assessment to minimize loss.”

Read the New View commentary in full.

Written by Elizabeth Ecker