roxie1,
 
Wow!!  I am a cynic but you, you are a genuine pessimist.  I am sorry but my cynicism blinds me to such pessimism.
 
I disagree with your analysis.  John Lunde has placed the drop at 50% of the volume produced by these industry giants.  You are much more aggressive taking it from a 21.5% loss to the entire market to 67% or more.
 
There is a base of seniors who are needs based with sufficient equity.  Yes, there will be a drop because of the very thing you describe.  While Wells provided an image of stability and strength in the early days of the industry they did little to provide real growth in terms of sheer numbers.  Senior Lending Network on the other hand saw the key ingredient, increasing home values, and combined with their marketing acumen placed reverse mortgages on the map.  Wells’ image helped but not that much.
 
John is right without major banks, we will have a hole which will not be filled.  We need more marketing campaigns to offset further erosion.  It seems both Urban and Security One will be stepping up and providing part of that.  But more, much more is needed.
 
I know sales managers will use our comments as the kind of gloom and doom originators should avoid but if there is always a Pollyanna view of production, those promises will eventually seem like what they are, empty and unrealizable goals.  Yes we need to reach higher but setting a goal that is one-third greater than can be achieved is nonsense.  Very soon one loses the image of a strong leader with hard but achievable goals to an image of being nothing more than an unyielding task master with no understanding of the market.
 
Best of luck in your new endeavor.