There is another side to the RMI statistics. While the volume of the top firms declined from 46,058 endorsements during the calendar year 2009 to 37,652 endorsements during the calendar year 2010 for a drop of 18.25%, the remainder of the industry fared far, far worse.

During calendar year 2009, the remainder of the industry had 65,866 endorsements but for the calendar year 2010, that volume dropped to 35,096 endorsements for a 46.72% drop.

What has helped the industry through this hard time are the high profits in fixed rate HECMs. But there is no question that the smaller lenders have been hit and hit hard in 2010. While the smaller lenders produced 58.85% of all endorsements during 2009, that percentage has dropped to 48% in 2010.

In actual number of endorsements, the Top Ten saw their share shrink by 8,406 but the smaller lenders saw their share shrink by 30,770. In actual volume, the Top Ten Lenders had more HECMs endorsed during 2010 than all other lenders combined. That is a significant shift in business.

If we look at just the Two Top Lenders, their volume dropped by 6,532 endorsements or 21.67% while the remainder of the industry dropped by 32,644 endorsements for a percentage drop of 39.92%.

Most importantly the Two Top Lenders went from doing a little over one-quarter of all endorsements in 2009 to doing almost one-third of all endorsements in 2010. That is a dramatic change in market domination.

Finally, the picture becomes even more striking when we just look at Wells. Its representation has gone from a little over one in six endorsements in 2009 to over 2 out of every 9 endorsements in 2010.

So while the endorsements per lender may have increased, the influence and domination of the market by the Top Ten, particularly the Top Two, is rising. One is an interesting statistic for cocktail parties, the other, a clear indication that the larger lenders are dominating our industry.

I am a fan of the Kentucky Derby because of the seeming democracy of it all. Apparently any of the competitors given the field of contenders and conditions on any given day might have the possibility of winning. I don’t bet, but I do know a little bit about the oddsmakers just from watching year after year. Two out of every 9 endorsements as TC says of Well Fargo gives a pretty big edge in our particular “horse race.” And its not just an interesting micro picture, it is a stark reality and wake up call to any of those who are not in the top tier of “racehorses.”

There is no upside to this picture. The little guys and even the intermediate guys are being squeezed out of the market by the two ton gorilla in the room. While I prefer not to give in to doom and gloom, what The Cynic did with the information Admin provided has lowered my tolerance for a candy coated poison pill happy ever after view of the future as provided by some of the Pollyannas of our industry.

So while you find your comparisons very interesting, I find them as depressing as if I were the guy who bet his shirt and lost it. All of us little guys are the losers in this “interesting micro picture.”

Raymond,

Unfortunately the industry is not all about you and your feelings. It is far more complicated than that.

Louise321,

I did not mean to paint doom and gloom. I guess a cynic even a rank amateur like me just can’t help it.